Welcome back to Sustainable Thoughts. Last week we looked at a summary of what sustainability is, this week we see why it is complicated to achieve? The difficulty is due to The Energy Trilemma…

Now, from philosophy, you probably know that a dilemma is a problem or conflict between two possibilities. As expected, a trilemma would have a third element which is not more important than the other two.

In economics, a trilemma would be regarded as ‘the impossible trinity’, a trade-off between three goals, usually two scenarios which are pursued at the expense of the third.

What does this have to do with energy and sustainability? As the world’s population continues to grow exponentially, the demand for energy, due to continued migration of people from rural to urban areas is expected double by 2050. This will require almost US$50 trillion to be invested into energy infrastructure between today and the turn of the half-century (Arup). These investments should not be used to build the same energy generating infrastructures which have polluted the planet over the past century.

Besides being energy efficient as mentioned in the previous blog, there are three important parameters that need to balance for the socio-economic aspects of energy sustainability to be consistently met from now and 2050. These three parameters, in no order of importance, are :

1. Energy Security
2. Energy Access and Affordability
3. Environmental Sustainability

Balancing these three key aspects is necessary for us to meet the growing worldwide energy demands, reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and have an uninterrupted supply of energy for economic growth.

The three paramets hold the same weight in terms of importance because the various stakeholders involved will prioritise one over the other. Since the signing of the Paris Accord, it is in the majority of countries’ jurisdiction, law and interest to enhance environmental sustainability by promoting decarbonisation throughout the economy. Energy is a key driver in economic growth, without electricity, modern day activities will be brought to a halt, therefore energy security is of national interest. Then there’s us, the citizens, the consumers, who need to unlimited access to energy whenever we need it and we have to be able afford it. All of these need to balance to enable prosperity and competitiveness in the energy markets which are vital to survival in, what I’d like to call, the climate conscious fourth industrial revolution.

Energy Security

In the fossil-fuel era, energy security was ensured by having a constant energy supply. This typically meant that mines were operating 24/7, digging coal out from the ground, transporting it to the power plant, and producing electricity, no matter the environmental cost. As the primary sources of energy shifts from coal-powered stations to natural gas, solar, wind and other renewables; the definition of energy security changes slightly.

Now, solar is great but the sun doesn’t shine 24-hours a day, wind blows but it doesn’t blow at a consistently favourable speed for maximum power production from the wind turbine all the time. It is common for there to be a mismatch between what is produced and what we need at any specific time. Unfortunately, at 7 or 8 a.m. when the energy demand is peaking; as people get ready for work; making breakfast, using power; we can’t choose to have the sun shining at its brightest so that we fully harvest solar energy. The vice-versa also applies, typically when the most solar energy is available we may not need all of it at that time.

This is where energy storage has a major role to play in the renewable energy sector. We can store the excess energy we produce and save it for when we can’t generate electricity. Giving us the chance to have an interrupted supply of power. As the cost of generating and storing power decreases with technological advancements and increased competition in the market, energy security now means the flexibility of a diversified grid, in which multiple primary of sources of energy are used in conjucntion with various storage methods to guarantee a reliable supply of power.

Energy security will require information technology systems and smart grids in order to predict current and future energy demands and manage demand. Smart technology will be the driving force behind energy security in the near future compared to political forces and oil markets in the current oil and gas era

The security of energy of a given entity is determined by

• Reserve margins, the difference between the maximum energy demand and its generation capacity.
• Energy imports as a percntage of energy consumption.
• Diversity of energy supply.

Energy Access and Affordability

At the end of the day, as a consumer, you will always want to find a product which is easily accessible and at the lowest price. Renewable energy technologies will only continue to be adopted if its price keeps getting lower.

Once more people adopt renewable energy for their domestic and industrial sources of power, the electricity sector as a whole will decentralise and democratise, giving the consumer full control of how much they wish to produce and consume, commonly known as being a ‘prosumer’. The ability for the average citizen of any nation to generate, distribute and deploy smart grids within their community, will cause a sharp drop in the wholesale price of electricity.

Storage capacity will rise greatly because the state will no longer be responsible for guaranteeing you power, creating a new market in energy storage, installation and power distribution. The government must ensure that its citizens can afford and have access to power as this will enable economic growth, allow people to perform their daily tasks, promote entrepreneurial activity and drive the health, education and other parts of the public sector. Incentives are usually ntroduced to enforce affordability, this allows for a fair price to be maintained incase markets are unable to be competitive.

It has been predicted that by 2040 most of Europe and North America will have an almost fully decentralised electricity grid. Policy-makers in the less developed nations, which haven’t fully industrialised, need to ensure that their frameworks address the energy trilemma elements. They must not follow the pathway of the OECD countries by opting for fossil fuels to drive their economic growth as they become more urbanised and industrialised. Governments must rather add subsidies to create employment and oppurtunities for citizens to compete in the international energy markets. This allows people to ‘cross a bridge while they build it’, bringing a modern, secure, clean, reliable and affordable energy system through micro/smart-grids powered by renewable energy and data management.

The affordability and access of an energy system is measured by :

• The percentage of the energy bill from the total household income.
• Industrial and Residential electricity prices.

Environmental Sustainability

As discussed in the previous blog, shifting from fossil-fuel sources to renewable energy will enhance environmental sustainability. Taking this factor into account results in reduced pollutants added into the atmosphere and alleviates the rate of global warming.

Sustainability in energy generation links energy consumption to the creation of greehouse gas emissions from raw material extraction to consumption. As mentioned above, less developed economies have less mature industrialised supply of energy so they currently pollute less. Shifting the transportation sector from fuel to electric and hydrogen powered vehicles will create new markets, reduce the cost of ‘fuelling your vehicle’, cause less pollution from the sector, and reduce the cost of vehicles. Electric vehicles (EVs) will become more and more affordable since they have sufficiently less mechanical parts, reducing the cost of production once breakthroughs continue to be made in EV range, charging and storage systems.

Energy sustainability is measured by :

• Energy Intensity per Capita.
• Share of low carbon electricity in the total generation mix.
• Greenhouse gas emissions per capita.

How Do We Solve The Trilemma?

To figure out how to solve the problem, we have to change the terminology from the trilemma to rather the challenge for us to believe that it is possible to balance these three parameters without compromising any of them.

Ed Davey, the Former United Kingdom Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, combined the elements of the trilemma into a process. He stated that competitive and attractive electricity investments need to be made, so that we transition to low-carbon energy systems. Increasing competition will increase affordability, and decarbonisation will naturally be promoted, thereby leading to greater energy security with local energy sources. Every aspect will have to compliment or positively influence the other.

The approach made by Davey avoids the conflict where strengthening security would normally require the use of a cheaper source of electricity to maintain affordability, or use more expensive renewable energy to improve sustainability. A country with low natural resources and poor infrastructure will look to import its power, compromising affordability. Importing affordable power while improving sustainability would also be a challenge. This shows that trade-offs between three parameters is basically impossible, the only way to address the issue would be to formulate a process which enhances all three of them.

I believe that the deployment of renewable energy will grow at a faster rate as time goes by. Oliver Wynam consultancy conducted an assessment and discovered that between Europe and North America, a home or a business goes solar every 2 minutes.

The trilemma can also be used as universal sustainability assessment for countries, cities and organisations in order to identify their position and have a reality check to assess their corporate sustainability. New policies that are adopted can be used within the trilemma to see if they are helping or hindering their sustainability progression.